top of page
Search
  • Writer's pictureMatt Seabridge

The Premier League’s Most Clinical Finishers


As we come to the end of the 2023/24 Premier League season, we’ll see and likely engage in no shortage of debates as football fans as to which players have performed well, which have proved to be shrewd signings and which have frankly been bad for our own sanity. 


In this post I did some digging into the performances this season relating to goalscoring to help me go beyond just the race for the Golden Boot to be able to uncover who has been the most clinical finishers in the Premier League this season. So I set out to find which players have been the most clinical in front of goal, the most likely to score when they shoot, and the best value for money finishers during what has been a season that has set new records for the amount of goals recorded during a 20 team Premier League season. 


Data has been collected from fbref.com and then filtered to exclude players that have played less than 450 mins this season (5 full games) and had less than 20 shots. 



The players with the best xG differential this season


Love it or hate it, xG has become synonymous with goalscoring efficiency. Here are the top 20 players with the best next xG differential this season excluding penalties (basically who has scored more goals than they would be expected to from the shots they took). 


Phil Foden leads the way with a net xG of +7.2 this season, easily ahead of Heung-min Son and Callum Hudson-Odoi in second and third place respectively. Tottenham, Crystal Palace, West Ham, Wolves, Arsenal and Aston Villa all have two players in the top 20 but Man City have the most with four players - Foden, Rodri, Silva and De Bruyne. 


#

Player

Club 

Net xG

1

Phil Foden

Man City

+7.2

2

Heung-min Son

Tottenham Hotspur

+5.7

3

Callum Hudson-Odoi

Nottingham Forest

+5.3

4

Michael Olise

Crystal Palace

+4.9

5

Diogo Jota

Liverpool

+4.7

6

Jarrod Bowen

West Ham

+4.3

=7

Hwang Hee-chan

Wolves

+4.2

=7

Elijah Adebayo

Luton

+4.2

9

Leandro Trossard

Arsenal

+4

10

Leon Bailey

Aston Villa

+3.9

11

Declan Rice

Arsenal

+3.8

12

Antoine Semenyo

Bournemouth

+3.6

13

Jean-Philippe Mateta

Crystal Palace

+3.2

14

Rodri

Man City

+3.1

15

Ollie Watkins

Aston Villa

+3

16

Matheus Cunha

Wolves

+2.6

17

Noni Madueke

Chelsea

+2.4

=18

Bernardo Silva

Man City

+2.3

=18

Dejan Kulusevski

Tottenham Hotspur

+2.3

=20

Kevin De Bruyne

Man City

+2.1

=20

Josh Brownhill

Burnley

+2.1

=20

Mohammed Kudus

West Ham

+2.1


The players with the worst xG this season


Sadly for these players however, they’d all be expected to have scored more goals this season than they’ve actually managed.


Dominic Calvert-Lewin has the unfortunate honour of being ranked as the least clinical finisher in the Premier League this season based on his net xG differential of -5.8. Darwin Nunez, Brennan Johnson and Nicolas Jackson also make the bottom five. Everton also have the most players in the bottom 20 with Beto and Doucoure joining Calvert-Lewin. 


#

Player

Club 

Net xG

1

Dominic Calvert-Lewin

Everton

-5.8

2

Darwin Núñez

Liverpool

-4.4

3

Brennan Johnson

Tottenham Hotspur

-4.3

4

Nicolas Jackson

Chelsea

-3.9

=5

Keane Lewis-Potter

Brentford

-3.4

=5

Luis Díaz

Liverpool

-3.4

7

Beto

Everton

-3

8

Enzo Fernández

Chelsea

-2.6

9

Julián Álvarez

Man City

-2.5

10

Antony

Man Utd

-2.4

=11

Casemiro

Man Utd

-2.3

=11

Gabriel Jesus

Arsenal

-2.3

=11

Erling Haaland

Man City

-2.3

=11

Pascal Groß

Brighton

-2.3

15

Matty Cash

Aston Villa

-2.2

16

Morgan Gibbs-White

Nottingham Forest

-2

=17

Ryan Christie

Bournemouth

-1.9

=17

Pablo Sarabia

Wolves

-1.9

19

Lucas Paquetá

West Ham

-1.8

=20

Jefferson Lerma

Crystal Palace

-1.7

=20

Timo Werner

Tottenham Hotspur

-1.7

=20

Abdoulaye Doucouré

Everton

-1.7

=20

Jay Rodriguez

Burnley

-1.7

=20

João Pedro

Brighton

-1.7


The players with the best % of shots scored


As well as xG we also looked at which players have scored with the highest percentage of shots they have taken to discover which players have been the most efficient and clinical with their shots on goal.


Luton’s Elijah Adebayo has been the most efficient finisher in the Premier League this season with one goal for every three shots that he’s taken. Just behind him are Jean-Phillippe Mateta at 32% and Alexander Isak at 31%. Nottingham Forest have three players in the top 20 while Arsenal, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Newcastle and Tottenham each have two. 


#

Player

Club 

Total Shots

Goals

% of Shots Scored

1

Elijah Adebayo

Luton

30

10

33%

2

Jean-Philippe Mateta

Crystal Palace

41

13

32%

3

Alexander Isak

Newcastle

65

20

31%

4

Hwang Hee-chan

Wolves

43

12

28%

=5

Chris Wood

Nottingham Forest

44

12

27%

=5

Taiwo Awoniyi

Nottingham Forest

22

6

27%

=5

Callum Wilson

Newcastle

33

9

27%

=8

Diogo Jota

Liverpool

41

10

24%

=8

Cristian Romero

Tottenham Hotspur

21

5

24%

=10

Cole Palmer

Chelsea

90

21

23%

=10

Erling Haaland

Man City

108

25

23%

=12

Rasmus Højlund

Man Utd

36

8

22%

=12

Son Heung-min

Tottenham Hotspur

77

17

22%

=14

Callum Hudson-Odoi

Nottingham Forest

38

8

21%

=14

Douglas Luiz

Aston Villa

43

9

21%

=16

Leandro Trossard

Arsenal

59

12

20%

=16

Kai Havertz

Arsenal

59

12

20%

=16

Leon Bailey

Aston Villa

50

10

20%

=16

Bobby Reid

Fulham

30

6

20%

=16

Michail Antonio

West Ham

30

6

20%

=16

Michael Olise

Crystal Palace

50

10

20%


The players with the worst % of shots scored


Not so good news however for all of these players with the worst percentage of shots scored this season. Six players have failed to score from at least 20 shots. Burnley, Everton and Man Utd all have three players in the top 20. 


#

Player

Club 

Total Shots

Goals

% of Shots Scored

=1

Ryan Christie

Bournemouth

40

0

0%

=1

Vitaly Janelt

Brentford

20

0

0%

=1

Billy Gilmour

Brighton

25

0

0%

=1

Vitinho

Burnley

22

0

0%

=1

William Osula

Sheffield United

21

0

0%

=1

Yves Bissouma

Tottenham Hotspur

24

0

0%

=7

Antony

Man Utd

43

1

2%

=7

James Garner

Everton

41

1

2%

=9

Casemiro

Man Utd

37

1

3%

=9

Jefferson Lerma

Crystal Palace

34

1

3%

=9

Ryan Yates

Nottingham Forest

31

1

3%

=12

Diogo Dalot

Man Utd

28

1

4%

=12

Dango Ouattara

Bournemouth

27

1

4%

=12

Pedro Porro

Tottenham Hotspur

51

2

4%

=12

Sander Berge

Burnley

25

1

4%

=12

Arnaut Danjuma

Everton

25

1

4%

=12

James Tarkowski

Everton

25

1

4%

=12

Alfie Doughty

Luton

25

1

4%

=12

Luca Koleosho

Burnley

23

1

4%

=20

Frank Onyeka

Brentford

22

1

5%

=20

Ryan Gravenberch

Liverpool

22

1

5%



The best value for money goalscorers


Erling Haaland looks likely to win the Golden Boot for a second successive season. Which probably shouldn’t be too surprising for such a big money signing on a massive salary. So to work out which goalscorers are the best value for money we collected the salary for our most prominent shooters from capology.com and calculated which players have scored the most goals relative to their annual salary. 


Rodrigo Muniz ranks as the best value for money goalscorer this season at £43k per goal scored, just ahead of Luton duo Carlton Morris and Elijah Adebayo. While many of the best value goalscorers are from teams in the lower half of the table, golden boot contenders Dominik Solanke (£137k per goal) and Cole Palmer (£186k per goal) rank seventh and ninth respectively. 


#

Player

Club 

Total Shots

Goals

Cost per Goal

1

Rodrigo Muniz

Fulham

73

9

£43k

2

Carlton Morris

Luton

63

10

£52k

3

Elijah Adebayo

Luton

30

10

£65k

4

Simon Adingra

Brighton

48

6

£108k

5

Yoane Wissa

Brentford

63

11

£118k

6

Antoine Semenyo

Bournemouth

67

8

£130k

7

Dominic Solanke

Bournemouth

104

19

£137k

8

Wilson Odobert

Burnley

44

3

£173k

9

Cole Palmer

Chelsea

90

21

£186k

10

Chiedozie Ogbene

Luton

32

4

£195k

11

Jean-Philippe Mateta

Crystal Palace

41

13

£200k

12

Oliver McBurnie

Sheffield United

31

6

£217k

13

Nicolas Jackson

Chelsea

75

14

£241k

=14

Rayan Aït-Nouri

Wolves

24

2

£260k

=14

James Mcatee

Sheffield United

25

3

£260k

=14

Ivan Toney

Brentford

47

4

£260k

=14

Anthony Elanga

Nottingham Forest

51

5

£260k

=14

Bryan Mbeumo

Brentford

50

9

£260k

=14

Facundo Buonanotte

Brighton

21

3

£260k

=14

Matheus Cunha

Wolves

71

12

£260k

=14

Evan Ferguson

Brighton

33

6

£260k


The best value for money goal providers


Granted, goals aren’t the only way of measuring a player’s direct contribution towards putting points on the table for their teams. Therefore, we also looked at which players provided the best value for money relative to the number of assists they provided as well as goals. 


When factoring in assists, Carlton Morris overtakes Rodrigo Muniz for value for money. Luton also took third and fourth spot with Alfie Doughty and Elijah Adebayo respectively. From the teams contending for European spots, Cole Palmer and Anthony Gordon both rank in the top 20.


#

Player

Club 

Goals

Assists

Cost per Goal & Assist

1

Carlton Morris

Luton

10

4

£37k

2

Rodrigo Muniz

Fulham

9

1

£39k

3

Alfie Doughty

Luton

1

8

£43k

4

Elijah Adebayo

Luton

10

0

£65k

5

Simon Adingra

Brighton

6

1

£93k

=6

Yoane Wissa

Brentford

11

2

£100k

=6

Anthony Elanga

Nottingham Forest

5

8

£100k

=8

Antoine Semenyo

Bournemouth

8

2

£104k

=8

Wilson Odobert

Burnley

3

2

£104k

=10

Dominic Solanke

Bournemouth

19

3

£118k

=10

Jordan Ayew

Crystal Palace

4

7

£118k

12

Cole Palmer

Chelsea

21

10

£126k

13

James Mcatee

Sheffield United

3

3

£130k

=14

Oliver McBurnie

Sheffield United

6

3

£144k

=14

Dwight McNeil

Everton

3

6

£144k

16

Jean-Philippe Mateta

Crystal Palace

13

4

£153k

=17

Chiedozie Ogbene

Luton

4

1

£156k

=17

Bryan Mbeumo

Brentford

9

6

£156k

=17

Anthony Gordon

Newcastle

10

10

£156k

=17

Gustavo Hamer

Sheffield United

4

6

£156k


The worst value for money goal providers


We also looked at which players have been the worst value for money ranked against the number of goals and assists they have provided this season. In the interest of fairness to midfielders we omitted players that have played less than 1,080 minutes this season (12 full games) and only included those that play as either a Forward or Attacking Midfielder.


It’s bad news for Man Utd fans as Antony and Marcus Rashford take both of the top two spots. Antony has provided one goal and one assist this season which works out at a whopping £5.2m per goal contribution, three times the cost of Rashford in second place. 


#

Player

Club 

Goals

Assists

Cost per Goal & Assist

1

Antony

Man Utd

1

1

£5.2m

2

Marcus Rashford

Man Utd

7

2

£1.7m

3

Raheem Sterling

Chelsea

7

4

£1.5m

4

Gabriel Jesus

Arsenal

4

5

£1.5m

5

Bernardo Silva

Man City

6

7

£1.2m

6

Raúl Jiménez

Fulham

5

0

£1m

7

Gabriel Martinelli

Arsenal

6

4

£936k

8

Abdoulaye Doucouré

Everton

7

1

£845k

=9

Martin Ødegaard

Arsenal

8

8

£780k

=9

Miguel Almirón

Newcastle

3

1

£780k

=9

Willian

Fulham

4

2

£780k

=9

Jack Harrison

Everton

3

3

£780k

=9

Lucas Paquetá

West Ham

4

6

£780k



Methodology

Data has been collected from fbref.com and then filtered to exclude players that have played less than 450 mins this season (5 full games) and had less than 20 shots. xG totals are all excluding penalties. Salaries are taken from capology.com. Data correct as of Monday May 13th 2024.

コメント


コメント機能がオフになっています。
bottom of page